Does this deal pencil?
The underwriting a small-portfolio investor actually runs, with every number moving live.
Price and rent are market medians across Domora's active listings. A typical home, not yours: type your own numbers.
Under 1.20 DSCR on this scale
Breaks even at $2,030
These two move the answer most. Everything else is below.
More assumptions(5)
Edits carry across all four tools
It does not cash-flow at the ask: about −$366 a month after debt service.
Range−$485 to −$249 a month across rates ±0.5% and rent ±5%. All-in monthly $1,881.
Cautious
−$485/mo
rate +0.5, rent −5%
Base
−$366/mo
your assumptions
Optimistic
−$249/mo
rate −0.5, rent +5%
Cash to close
$72,400
25% down + 3% closing + rehab
Cap rate on
4.32%
NOI ÷ price, after vacancy, reserves and management
Cash-on-cash
−6.1%
year 1, on all cash invested
DSCR
0.69
below the 1.20 lender floor
Break-even rent
$2,030
31% above the estimate
5-yr MOIC
0.70x
cash flow only, no appreciation
Annual cash flow, years 1 to 10, at your assumptions with rent growing 3% and costs growing 2.5% a year.
| Year | Cash flow after debt service |
|---|---|
| Year 1 | −$4,394 |
| Year 2 | −$4,058 |
| Year 3 | −$3,713 |
| Year 4 | −$3,355 |
| Year 5 | −$2,987 |
| Year 6 | −$2,606 |
| Year 7 | −$2,213 |
| Year 8 | −$1,808 |
| Year 9 | −$1,389 |
| Year 10 | −$957 |
Each bar is the swing in monthly cash flow from moving that one assumption on its own, with everything else held.
| What moves it | Swing |
|---|---|
| Rate ±0.5% | ±$59/mo |
| Rent ±5% | ±$59/mo |
| Vacancy +2 pts | −$26/mo |
The deeper model
Everything the answer above is made of, and the two overlays that change the deal rather than describe it. All of it runs on the assumptions you set in the rail.
Every assumption
The same numbers the rail edits, in full. Changing one here moves the rail and the answer at the same time. Hold years, exit cap and selling costs are under The exit, beside the sale they price.
The grade
The current assumptions do not clear a comfortable hurdle rate.
Levered IRR lands at 3.71%, which falls below a typical small-portfolio return target. Year-1 DSCR is 0.69, too thin for most debt sources without a change in price or NOI. Unless you have strong support for rent upside or a better basis, the cleaner move is probably to pass.
10 yr hold · 6.50% · 6.00% vacancy
- Year-1 DSCR is 0.69. Most DSCR lenders require ≥ 1.2; agency/Freddie SBL ≥ 1.25.
- IRR
- The total return test across the full hold.
- DSCR
- The lender filter. If this misses, IRR may not matter.
- Cash-on-cash
- Year-one yield on your equity after debt and reserves.
The exit
Income-approach value: what an investor paying a 6.50% cap rate would pay for the rent roll — not a market price forecast. The rent-vs-buy tool values the same home on a price-appreciation path instead, so the two can legitimately differ.
At market appreciation (3.0%/yr): ~$309k after 10 years — the price-path lens the rent-vs-buy tool uses. The two lenses roughly agree here.
What moves the deal
Each input moved down and up on its own, everything else held. The column is the swing between the two, so the widest bar is the assumption worth arguing about before you sign anything.
| Input | Downside | Base | Upside | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit cap | +3.31 pts | −8.31% | −1.59 pts | |
| Mortgage rate | +0.83 pts | 3.71% | −0.84 pts | |
| Gross rent | −0.80 pts | 3.71% | +0.80 pts | |
| Purchase price | +0.70 pts | 3.71% | −0.64 pts | |
| Vacancy | +0.17 pts | 3.71% | −0.17 pts |
Year by year
The pro forma the returns are computed from. Operating expenses grow at their own rate, the reserve lines are real money set aside, and cash flow is what is left after debt service.
| Yr | GSI | EGI | OpEx | NOI | Interest | Principal | Debt svc | Cash flow | Balance | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $19k | $18k | $8,242 | $9,939 | $13k | $1,622 | $14k | −$4,394 | $171k | 4.32% |
| 2 | $20k | $19k | $8,452 | $10k | $13k | $1,746 | $14k | −$4,058 | $169k | 4.47% |
| 3 | $21k | $19k | $8,668 | $11k | $12k | $1,879 | $14k | −$3,713 | $167k | 4.62% |
| 4 | $21k | $20k | $8,889 | $11k | $12k | $2,023 | $14k | −$3,355 | $165k | 4.77% |
| 5 | $22k | $20k | $9,117 | $11k | $12k | $2,178 | $14k | −$2,987 | $163k | 4.93% |
| 6 | $22k | $21k | $9,350 | $12k | $12k | $2,345 | $14k | −$2,606 | $161k | 5.10% |
| 7 | $23k | $22k | $9,590 | $12k | $12k | $2,524 | $14k | −$2,213 | $158k | 5.27% |
| 8 | $24k | $22k | $9,835 | $13k | $12k | $2,718 | $14k | −$1,808 | $155k | 5.45% |
| 9 | $25k | $23k | $10k | $13k | $11k | $2,926 | $14k | −$1,389 | $153k | 5.63% |
| 10 | $25k | $24k | $10k | $13k | $11k | $3,150 | $14k | −$957 | $149k | 5.82% |
BRRRR overlay
Buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat. Stabilize the asset, then refi on ARV instead of purchase price, and see how much cash comes back and what year-1 cash flow looks like on the new note.
1031 exchange
Estimate the deferred gain, boot, carryover basis and tax savings on a Section 1031 like-kind exchange.